Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season
Welcome Here's 2011! I believe we could get an El Nino this year, so I'm thinking an above-average season. Anyone have specific calls? Just like I did with the Atlantic hurricane season, the /Betting pools/ are here, too! Ryan1000 21:18, January 18, 2011 (UTC) :I guess I'll go with 17-9-4 (named-hurricanes-major) Yqt1001 02:18, February 2, 2011 (UTC) ::I think we will have 14-19 storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and I'm not sure about cat. 5's; we've had one here for two straight years; that's a record as it is, and saying we'll have another one for 3 straight years is a bit too generous for the EPac IMO. Ryan1000 21:49, February 2, 2011 (UTC) ::15-6-3 is my guess. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] ::And it is officially hurricane season! yay! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:07, May 15, 2011 (UTC) :It has been cyclone season in the SHem Forum beforehand, but anyways, happy hurricane season! Adrian will be on our hands likely in the next week or two. Then, we'll get many more storms from there. Unlike 2010, an El Nino could happen this year, so an active season could be on our way! Ryan1000 12:54, May 15, 2011 (UTC) October 92C.INVEST 92C.INVEST CP, 92, 2011100100, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1541W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, A compact area of low pressure located about 575 miles south- southeast of the Big Island is moving west at 10 to 15 mph. Thunderstorm coverage and organization has been limited, and upper level winds are only marginally conducive for further development. There is a low chance, near 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.Allanjeffs 01:25, October 1, 2011 (UTC) : But it's in a spot that's only marginally conductive for development.10Q. 01:58, October 1, 2011 (UTC) :: Still at 10%[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 14:32, October 1, 2011 (UTC) ::: Gone.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 15:40, October 2, 2011 (UTC) 97E.INVEST Aoi: Near Mexico 10%.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 15:40, October 2, 2011 (UTC) 20%.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 12:08, October 3, 2011 (UTC) Down to 10%Allanjeffs 17:46, October 3, 2011 (UTC) Back up to 20%. EPac has gotten a little boring rescently, but October has the potential to produce some of the mightiest EPac storms possible. 2 of our 4 retirees in this basin have formed in this month, and a ton of very strong storms can easily form at this time too. This is the WPac's peak month, so I would expect a ton of activity over there. 'Ryan1000' 20:53, October 4, 2011 (UTC) I agree with you in the eastern pacific part because the MJO is coming through it and also in the Atlantic so both basins will have a lot of tropical mischief but the western pacific is coming dryer conditions as the MJO leave that basinAllanjeffs 21:15, October 4, 2011 (UTC) 97E.INVEST Invested now and up to 30%. I am convinced we will have a hurricane out of this one, if only briefly, but it does appear like it will intensify due to some pretty favorable conditions for the next several days, and we have a new AOI at 20% for the next couple of days. Allan, although the MJO may be leaving the WPac, their October is like the Atlantic's September, or EPac's August; it's their peak month. Considering the extent of activity WPac has dealt out in the past, I think we will have an active October coming our way there, and here. 'Ryan1000' 08:21, October 5, 2011 (UTC) : 50%.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 11:52, October 5, 2011 (UTC ::Looks like it has a decent chance at MH strength..I kinda hope it gets to C5 strength, one thing Hilary didn't have that this wave does...is the MJO. Yqt1001 12:16, October 5, 2011 (UTC) :::70%! Yqt1001 19:11, October 5, 2011 (UTC) ::::Only forecast to be a 1, but I wouldn't be surprised if it and 98E explode in the next few days. 'Ryan1000' 19:40, October 5, 2011 (UTC) ::::I think it might reach about Category 2 status and become Irwin. Kiewii 20:04, October 5, 2011 (UTC) :::::80%. Yqt1001 00:00, October 6, 2011 (UTC) 98E.INVEST AOI:Near Mexico Another one at 20%. 'Ryan1000' 08:21, October 5, 2011 (UTC) 98E.INVEST 50% already, just a question..are 98E and 97E close enough to have a Fujiwara interaction? They seem really close... Yqt1001 19:11, October 5, 2011 (UTC) I don't think they will, but I am quite surprised as to how unenthusiastic the models are with this one. It's moving slower than 97E, and it has better conditions since 97E will be in the clear as well. Bud and Carlotta of 2006 were so close to each other that I thought they would undergo a Fujawara at any given moment, but all that did happen was Bud encountered unfavorable conditions, tearing him apart, and what was left of Bud killed Carlotta as she was heading seaward. This thing will not become sheared by 97E because the difference in intensity(percentage for development) isn't far enough off for that. 50% vs 70%. Bud was 125 mph vs Carlotta at only 85 mph, and Bud became a hurricane when Carlotta was becoming a depression/minimal TS. If Bud didn't shear Carlotta into oblivion, then there is no way this storm will become torn apart by 97E. Ivan and Joan in WPac of October 1997 are also somewhat of a mystery for no fujawara between them, as were Ron and Susan in SPac in January 1998. We'll just have to wait and see, but I guess it's fair to say Irwin and Jova are just about here. 'Ryan1000' 19:40, October 5, 2011 (UTC) :::80%! The NHC actually has this wave developing before 98L now. Yqt1001 00:01, October 6, 2011 (UTC) ::: you mean 97l yeah this will be irwin i think 00:53, October 6, 2011 (UTC) ::: The race to Irwin begins...loser gets the name ''Jova. Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:46, October 6, 2011 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Started this section early. With three hurricanes at hand, I just felt like starting this section. Anywho, what are your predictions? Mine: *'Adrian - 1%' No effects on land, intensity doesn't earn retirements. *'Beatriz - 10%' Impact not significant, while there are 4 deaths, I don't think it's going to be retired. *'Calvin - 1%' Was indeed an interesting storm. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:07, July 8, 2011 (UTC) :Well, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement, but if I had to put a number on it? I would put 5% to Beatriz and keep everyone else, since they did nothing. However, the season is far from over, and there is always a possibility of a destructive late-season storm like Kenna or Pauline. As of now, i'd wait on this section. I also made this in the WPac forum just now, but it should wait there too. Ryan1000 22:47, July 8, 2011 (UTC) : : :Here are mine: : :Adrian - 2% 'I don't think so, intensities don't determine retirements. And Adrian's staying, unless he pulls a Knut out of the hat. :'Beatriz '- 7%' Unless we get an Alma- like situation, no. 4 deaths are not enough, and Mexico has gone through worse than her. :Calvin - 0% 'He's gonna stay, no matter what. The end. :'Dora - 3% 'See Adrian's section. :'Eugene - 1% 'See Dora's, Calvin's, and Adrian's sections. :'Fernanda - 0% - 'History doesn't earn retirement. :'Greg - 1% - 'Slightly brushed Mexico, but no. :'Hilary - 1% - 'See Adrian's, Dora's, and Eugene's section. :And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Here are mine (Until Calvin) *Adrian – 0%:Unless it's some dictator's name, hell no. *Beatriz – 2%:Why the heck would this one be retired? *Calvin – 0%:I love fish :P 'Darren23 | 02:38, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :A bit early but here are mine: ::Adrian; 0%: ^ what Darren said ::Beatriz; 4%: Arlene hurt Mexico more, but Mexico seems resilient to retire names anymore ::Calvin; 0%: Became a hurricane, but that's it. ::Dora; 0%: Didn't do much other than RI. ::Eugene; 0%: ^ same as Dora. ::Fernanda; 0%: Got into the CPac, but that isn't a retirement worthy feat. ::Greg; 0%: ^ same as Calvin. ::Hilary; : Yqt1001 20:42, September 22, 2011 (UTC) Here are mine: * Adrian: 1% Not enough impact * Beatriz: 5% Did not devastate the economy * Calvin 0% YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] Adrian-0%, Beatriz-10%, Calvin-0%, Dora-5%. OWEN2011 16:11, July 22, 2011 (UTC) *Adrian: 1% - Unless he pulls an Adolph, no. *Beatriz: 10% - Some impact in Mexico, but not terribly significant. That said, there is the possibility that she could pull an Alma. *Calvin: 0% - Became a hurricane... and did absolutely nothing else. *Dora: 1% - Was fun as hell to track, but as Jake said about Danielle last year, beauty doesn't earn retirement. *Eugene: 1% - See Adrian and Dora's sections. *Fernanda: 0% - And so passes the first epic fail of the year (well, for the EPAC anyway). *Greg: 0% - See Calvin's section. --HurricaneMaker99 17:24, August 20, 2011 (UTC) Here are my(official)EPac percentages as of now. *Adrian - 1% - Just because he was so freakin' awesome. *Beatriz - 10% - Some deaths, some damage, but enough for retirement? Probrably not. *Calvin - 0% - There are two reasons why this thing shouldn't be retired:Number 1, and of course number 2!(end sarcasm) *Dora - 0% - Didn't pull off what Adrian did, so no credit for her. *Eugene - 1% - See Adrian. *Fernanda - 0% - Finally the hurricane streak ends, and it didn't do anything but spin fish. *Greg - 0% - See Calvin. *Hilary - 0% - It was strong and long-lasting, but that doesn't earn retirement. 'Ryan1000' 22:30, August 24, 2011 (UTC) Here's mine: Adrian, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, and Hilary - 0% - they're all fishspinners. Beatriz - 5% - At least it had fatalities and affected land. 10Q. 20:36, September 22, 2011 (UTC) Adrian,Calvin,Eugene,Fernada,Greg 0% Beatriz 8% because of the deathe and the damage. Dora 3 % Minimal damage. Hilary 5% Hilary was an amazing storm but amazing not always correspond to retirement and this is the case Allanjeffs 01:51, August 30, 2011 (UTC) Mid-season forecasts What are you guy mid-season forecasts. Mines is 14-9-4. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] :I am expecting a near-normal season here, if not slightly below normal, and I am calling for, say 14-16 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors, but no category 5's. Until Calvin dissipates, I guess the next thing to watch is 08W in the WPac, which is currently Goring by PAGASA and could become future Ma-on. Ryan1000 19:24, July 9, 2011 (UTC) ::I'm gonna go to the lower end of all y'all's forecasts and go for 12 NS, 7 H, 3 MH and also no C5's (EPAC only, I hate forecasting CPAC). Apparently, this is close to the CPC forecast of a median of 12 NS, 6.5 H and 2 MH. Here's my monthly forecast: *Jun: 2TS, 2H, 1MH *Jul: 3TS, 1H, 0MH *Aug: 3TS, 2H, 1MH *Sep: 3TS, 2H, 1MH *Oct: 1TS, 0H, 0MH *Nov: 0TS, 0H, 0MH *Dec: Heck no 'Darren23' | 20:18, July 9, 2011 (UTC) '''HurricaneSpin's' Atlantic: 16-13-8-5-1 (Maria) ACE=108 Pacific: 18-14-7-3-0 (Norma) ACE=101 - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 20:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Oh yeah, ATL. I'm going with 16 (±3) NS, 8(±2) H, 5(±1) MH, ≥0 C5, or above normal with an ACE of 110-195, or (assuming median ACE is 87.5) 125-222% above normal mean because conditions are still very favorable for significant development in the season. Darren23 | 20:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :My predictions: ::Atlantic: 16-8-4-2 ::Pacific: 14-7-3-0 :Yqt1001 21:49, July 9, 2011 (UTC) : :I think the Atlantic will have 14-9-5. IMO, the pacific is more tricky since we already have had the first three storms become hurricanes and 1 major. I would go with 11-12 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 1-5 majors (I wouldn't be suprised if the season ends up like 2010 and has no majors through peak of season.) :ACE for the Atlantic should be around 150. The Pacific ACE should be between 50-80. Suprise11 22:53, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :2010? Why is 2010 being discussed? Do you realize that the 2010 PHS an anomaly? The environment is much more favorable than 2010. In fact, if this seaosn shuts down later this month, and pulls a 2010/1977, I will be shocked. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 22:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC) ::While 2010 was anomaly (Number of June storms, June C5, lack of activity afterward), because we are in the inactive Pacific era, a repeat will not be surprising, but it is not really expected. And YE, an interment is a burial :P 'Darren23' | 23:11, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :::It will be surprising, because a 2010 type season has occurred only twice in the past 44 years. So the odds of an 2010 type season is 1/22.YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:29, July 9, 2011 (UTC) ::: :::I meant 2010 in terms of the possibility of no majors through peak of season. For example, despite 2003's high number of named storms, there were no majors. Suprise11 23:36, July 9, 2011 (UTC) ::::Given the fact that we already have three major and one cane, it is unlikely that we will have no majors in the season. Most years have a Baja storm that becomes an MH if not an MH fish storm. In fact, I could only find two seasons since 1977 with no MH's during the peak (2003 and 2010). Odds=1/12. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:43, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :::: ::::True. I gave a big range since because of the difficulty for me to predict majors for this season. I honestly think we will get 2 more majors for a total of 3 majors. This is inside my range. Suprise11 23:50, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :::I'm not entirely sure, but I do believe that a 2010 repeat is next to impossible here. Not to say a 2010 repeat won't happen, but the chances are not good. I changed the tables below the forumheader and the WAD(Worldwide activity discussion) now has it's own forum. I expect a major or two to come in the season's peak, but per 2003 and last year, that's not a gurantee, but again, it's not likely we won't have a peak-season major hurricane this year. The only thing out there as of now is the new TD in the WPac(excluding Calvin, he's pretty much gone). 'Ryan1000 '01:33, July 10, 2011 (UTC) ::: :::Well... my predictions are on the worldwide discusssion page, but here are my E. Pac and C.Pac mid- season forecasts. And for the E.Pac, we've seen 3-3-1 already, but anywho: :::E.Pac: :::14-7-2-0 (get down to Max + one Atlantic crossover) ACE= ~105 Net TC activity: 101% :::C.Pac (note: crossover(s) from the EPac are excluded): :::(2-4)-(1-3)-(0-2)-(0-1) ACE = ~20 :::I believe in the CPac, we'll get down to Unala, possibly Wali, or if the CPac wants to be like 1982, Ana. :::For my other forecasts, go to the WAD and 2011-12 S. Hem pages. Andrew444 13:32, July 10, 2011 (UTC) ::: ::: Very mid season predictions Mines are 14-10-6. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:06, August 16, 2011 (UTC) Mine is also 14-10-6 (please see my blog http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog:Andrew444/Remainder_of_2011_and_2012_forecast_calls). Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:32, August 16, 2011 (UTC) EPAC hurricane drought Any overdue areas in the EPAC? YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:06, August 16, 2011 (UTC) : YE, Southern California is overdue. Last hurricane to make landfall was in 1858, and the last tropical storm was in 1939. However, numerous depressions have made landfall since then. Suprise11 17:24, August 16, 2011 (UTC) : : Suprise11, the 1858 hurricane did bring hurricane force winds ashore, but it actually just barely missed landfall. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:39, August 16, 2011 (UTC) : Don't forget western Central America.Cyclone10 21:35, August 27, 2011 (UTC) : Well, Agatha last year made landfall in Guatemala, unless you mean ''hurricane ''landfall. Then, I don't know when the last time that happened. Hurricane Andrew (444) 23:17, August 27, 2011 (UTC) :If you use SNM data, Adrian 05 made landfall in Central America. If you use NHC data, never :P. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:15, August 28, 2011 (UTC) :I meant hurricane strength at landfall.10L.NONAME 21:47, August 28, 2011 (UTC)(Cyclone10) : Late season forecasts The peak of the EPAC season is gone, so what are your late season predictions? Mine is 12-9-4. [[User: Andrew444|'Hurricane']] [[User talk: Andrew444|'Andrew']] ([[User blog:Andrew444|'444']]) 00:31, September 10, 2011 (UTC) :Because I believe we're heading for an EPAC shutdown due to the waters getting colder in EPAC, mine is 9-7-3 'Darren23' | 12:54, September 10, 2011 (UTC) :I think two to three storms mine is 10-7-3Allanjeffs 19:17, September 10, 2011 (UTC) ::I think we will have an October major hurricane coming our way, and another hurricane also in October or late September. So my call is 9-7-3 as well, with an ACE/storm near-normal or slightly above average. The ACE/storm in ATL will suck this year because we've only had one hurricane for every 7 storms. 2007 had 2 for every 5, with an ACE/storm of 4.6. Even if we do get a lot of strong storms after this date, I still expect the ACE/storm to be below average. I expect the maximum possibility to be 6, and that might be a little generous even so. 'Ryan1000' 14:06, September 11, 2011 (UTC) :::Over in the ATL forum I said 9-12 depressions, 9-11 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 0-1 category 5 hurricanes (I don't know why I never included majors, but for majors I'm going with 3-4) Yqt1001 19:40, September 11, 2011 (UTC) ::::Yeah, EPAC's dead. While sort-of improbable (I give it a 40% chance of happening), we could beat/tie the record low for the # of storms. And EPAC is like... 54% below average in terms of ACE, which is pretty much like the NHEM totals. (ACE/Storm, depending on storm numbers, is sometimes a terrible indicator of the activity). While I didn't think it could happen, it looks like we have a slightly more active version of 2010. 'Darren23' | 15:37, September 18, 2011 (UTC) :::::We may have Hilary of the new AOI and maybe Irwin in october the most to me will be Keneth and that it is for me Allanjeffs 23:56, September 18, 2011 (UTC) ::::::I personally prefer to use ACE/storm because a season could only have a few storms but incredible ACE, or a ton of storms and a horrible ACE, so if you take the number of storms it had in proportion to the number of storms of another season, the ACE skyrockets or plummets. And this year's EPac season could be on the road to having the highest ACE/storm since at least 1995, if not higher. 'Ryan1000''' 20:19, September 21, 2011 (UTC)